Journal of Entrepreneurial Strategies in Agriculture

fa ارزیابی اثر متغیرهای اب و هوایی دما و بارش بر تولید مرکبات استان مازندران با رویکرد توسعه اشتغال روستایی Exploring the Effect of Climatic Variables of Temperature and Rainfall on the Economy of Citrus Production in Mazandaran Province with the Approach of Rural Employment Development تخصصي Special پژوهشي Research <div style="text-align: justify;">چکیده مبسوط مقدمه و هدف: ایجاد اشتغال پایدار در بخش کشاورزی از چالشهای مهم اقتصادی و اجتماعی می‌باشد. با توجه به وابستگی بسیار زیاد بخش کشاورزی به شرایط آب و هوایی، بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر اقتصاد این بخش و توسعه اشتغال روستایی از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار می‌باشد. در همین راستا این پژوهش با هدف بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر اقتصاد تولید مرکبات در استان مازندران بهکمک رهیافت ریکاردین انجام شد. مواد و روش‌ها: متغیرهای اقلیمی مورد مطالعه در این پژوهش شامل داده‌های دما و بارش سالانه استان مازندران در سال‌های 1379 تا 1396 بودند که این اطلاعات از سازمان هواشناسی کشور دریافت شد. مناطق مورد مطالعه هفت ایستگاه هواشناسی شامل آمل، بابلسر، قراخیل، نوشهر، رامسر، ساری و سیاه‌بیشه بودند. دو محصول پرتقال و نارنگی با بیشترین سطح زیر کشت، به‌عنوان مهمترین محصولات مرکبات در نظر گرفته شدند. متغیر اقلیمی دمای کمینه، دمای بیشینه و بارش ماهانه با دوره پایه 2000 تا 2017 (1396-1379) برای دوره‌های 2050 و 2080 و سه سناریو خوشبینانه (RCP2.6)، متوسط (RCP4.5) و بدبینانه (RCP8.5) ریزمقیاس نمایی شدند. یافتهها: در تولید پرتقال، تغییرات دما و بارش میانگین سالانه در سه سناریو در سال 2050 به‌ترتیب سبب افزایش 13/4، 14/5 و 25/2 درصدی و در سال 2080 به‌ترتیب سبب افزایش 14/3، 27/8 و 29/1 درصدی درآمد خالص در مقایسه با میانگین درآمد خالص در دوره پایه شد. در تولید نارنگی نیز، مقدار درآمد خالص کشاورزان در این سه سناریو در سال 2050 به‌ترتیب 5/2، 6/7 و 17/7 درصد و در سال 2080 بهترتیب 6/2، 15/0 و 29/2 درصد افزایش داشت. نتیجه‌گیری: به‌طور کلی نتایج حاصل از بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم در سال‌های 2050 و 2080 نشان داد، اثر تغییر متغیرهای اقلیمی بر درآمد خالص هر دو محصول مثبت بود. در نتیجه، نتایج تغییر اقلیم نشان دهنده افزایش درآمد خالص حاصل از تولید مرکبات و در راستای آن ایجاد یک روند مثبت در توسعه اشتغال‌زایی تولید مرکبات طی سال‌های 2050 و 2080 می‌باشد. </div> <h1 style="text-indent: -0.5pt; text-align: justify;">Extended Abstract  </h1> <div style="text-align: justify;">Background: Providing persistent employment in the agricultural sector is one of the most significant economic and social challenges faced by many countries. The agricultural sector's high dependence on weather conditions makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change. Consequently, investigating the effects of climate change on the economy of this sector, especially concerning rural employment, is of paramount importance. This research aims to analyze the impact of climate change on citrus production in Mazandaran Province, utilizing the Ricardian approach. By examining the relationship between climatic variables and agricultural output, this study seeks to provide insights that can help enhance the resilience of the agricultural sector against climate fluctuations. Methods: The climatic variables studied in this research include temperature and rainfall data for Mazandaran Province from 2000 to 2017. These data were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization. The research focused on seven synoptic stations: Amol, Babolsar, Qarakhil, Nowshehr, Ramsar, Sari, and Siyabisheh. Among the various citrus products, orange and tangerine were selected due to their significant cultivated area and economic importance. The climatic variables analyzed include minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and monthly rainfall. These variables were downscaled for three distinct periods: the baseline period (2000 to 2017), as well as projected scenarios for 2020 and 2080, under three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: optimistic (RCP2.6), medium (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RCP8.5). Results: The findings reveal that in orange production, changes in temperature and annual rainfall, compared to the average net income during the baseline period, will result in increased net income by 13.4%, 14.5%, and 25.2% under the three scenarios, respectively. For the years 2050 and 2080, the increases in net income are projected to be 14.3%, 27.8%, and 29.1%. In terms of tangerine production, the net income under the investigated scenarios is expected to rise by 5.2%, 6.7%, and 17.7%, with further increases of 6.2%, 15.0%, and 29.2% anticipated in 2050 and 2080, respectively. These results indicate a positive correlation between changing climatic conditions and the economic viability of citrus production in Mazandaran Province. Conclusion: In conclusion, the results obtained from examining the effects of climate change in 2050 and 2080 demonstrate a positive impact of changing climate variables on the net income derived from both orange and tangerine production. The findings suggest that climate change may lead to an upward trend in net income from citrus production, which could, in turn, foster employment development in this sector. This upward trend indicates that, while climate change poses significant challenges to agriculture, it may also create opportunities for increased productivity and economic growth in specific areas such as citrus farming. The implications of this research are significant for policymakers and agricultural stakeholders. Understanding how climate change can enhance or hinder agricultural productivity allows for better planning and resource allocation. It highlights the need for adaptive strategies that can help farmers maximize their yields while mitigating the adverse effects of climate variability. Moreover, the positive outlook regarding citrus production under changing climatic conditions emphasizes the importance of investing in agricultural research and development. By focusing on climate-resilient practices and technologies, stakeholders can better prepare for future challenges while capitalizing on potential gains in productivity. In summary, this study underscores the necessity of integrating climate change considerations into agricultural policies and practices. The findings not only provide a glimpse into the future of citrus production in Mazandaran Province but also serve as a call to action for the agricultural community to embrace innovation and adaptability in the face of climate change. By doing so, they can ensure sustainable growth and job creation in the agricultural sector, thereby contributing to the overall economic stability of rural areas. In light of these findings, further research is recommended to explore the specific mechanisms through which climate change affects citrus production and to identify best practices for mitigating risks while enhancing productivity. This could involve examining the role of soil health, water management, and pest control in adapting to changing climatic conditions. Additionally, studies could investigate the socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural communities, particularly in terms of employment opportunities and income stability. Ultimately, the relationship between climate change and agricultural productivity is complex and multifaceted. However, by focusing on the potential benefits and implementing proactive measures, it is possible to navigate the challenges posed by climate change while fostering economic growth and employment in the agricultural sector.</div> تغییر اقلیم, درآمد خالص, رهیافت ریکاردین, مازندران, مرکبات Citrus, Climate change, Mazandaran, Net income, Ricardian approach 132 146 http://jea.sanru.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-633-2&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 omid Amani امید امانی omidamanimale@gmail.com 10031947532846004669 10031947532846004669 Yes Department of Agricultural Economics, Qaimshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qaimshahr, Iran گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، واحد قائمشهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قائمشهر، ایران Feizabadi Yaser یاسر فیض آبادی yaser.feizabadi@qaemiau.ac.ir 10031947532846004670 10031947532846004670 No Department of Agricultural Economics, Qaimshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qaimshahr, Iran گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، واحد قائمشهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قائمشهر، ایران ghasem Norouzi قاسم نوروزی ghnorouzi@yahoo.com 10031947532846004671 10031947532846004671 No Department of Agricultural Economics, Qaimshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qaimshahr, Iran گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، واحد قائمشهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قائمشهر، ایران