Volume 10, Issue 1 (8-2023)
J Entrepreneurial Strategies Agric 2023, 10(1): 132-146 |
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Amani O, Yaser F, Norouzi G. (2023). Exploring the Effect of Climatic Variables of Temperature and Rainfall on the Economy of Citrus Production in Mazandaran Province with the Approach of Rural Employment Development. J Entrepreneurial Strategies Agric. 10(1), 132-146. doi:10.61186/jea.10.19.132
URL: http://jea.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-354-en.html
URL: http://jea.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-354-en.html
1- Department of Agricultural Economics, Qaimshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qaimshahr, Iran
Abstract: (3210 Views)
Extended Abstract
Background: Providing persistent employment in the agricultural sector is one of the most significant economic and social challenges faced by many countries. The agricultural sector's high dependence on weather conditions makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change. Consequently, investigating the effects of climate change on the economy of this sector, especially concerning rural employment, is of paramount importance. This research aims to analyze the impact of climate change on citrus production in Mazandaran Province, utilizing the Ricardian approach. By examining the relationship between climatic variables and agricultural output, this study seeks to provide insights that can help enhance the resilience of the agricultural sector against climate fluctuations.
Methods: The climatic variables studied in this research include temperature and rainfall data for Mazandaran Province from 2000 to 2017. These data were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization. The research focused on seven synoptic stations: Amol, Babolsar, Qarakhil, Nowshehr, Ramsar, Sari, and Siyabisheh. Among the various citrus products, orange and tangerine were selected due to their significant cultivated area and economic importance. The climatic variables analyzed include minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and monthly rainfall. These variables were downscaled for three distinct periods: the baseline period (2000 to 2017), as well as projected scenarios for 2020 and 2080, under three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: optimistic (RCP2.6), medium (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RCP8.5).
Results: The findings reveal that in orange production, changes in temperature and annual rainfall, compared to the average net income during the baseline period, will result in increased net income by 13.4%, 14.5%, and 25.2% under the three scenarios, respectively. For the years 2050 and 2080, the increases in net income are projected to be 14.3%, 27.8%, and 29.1%. In terms of tangerine production, the net income under the investigated scenarios is expected to rise by 5.2%, 6.7%, and 17.7%, with further increases of 6.2%, 15.0%, and 29.2% anticipated in 2050 and 2080, respectively. These results indicate a positive correlation between changing climatic conditions and the economic viability of citrus production in Mazandaran Province.
Conclusion: In conclusion, the results obtained from examining the effects of climate change in 2050 and 2080 demonstrate a positive impact of changing climate variables on the net income derived from both orange and tangerine production. The findings suggest that climate change may lead to an upward trend in net income from citrus production, which could, in turn, foster employment development in this sector. This upward trend indicates that, while climate change poses significant challenges to agriculture, it may also create opportunities for increased productivity and economic growth in specific areas such as citrus farming. The implications of this research are significant for policymakers and agricultural stakeholders. Understanding how climate change can enhance or hinder agricultural productivity allows for better planning and resource allocation. It highlights the need for adaptive strategies that can help farmers maximize their yields while mitigating the adverse effects of climate variability. Moreover, the positive outlook regarding citrus production under changing climatic conditions emphasizes the importance of investing in agricultural research and development. By focusing on climate-resilient practices and technologies, stakeholders can better prepare for future challenges while capitalizing on potential gains in productivity. In summary, this study underscores the necessity of integrating climate change considerations into agricultural policies and practices. The findings not only provide a glimpse into the future of citrus production in Mazandaran Province but also serve as a call to action for the agricultural community to embrace innovation and adaptability in the face of climate change. By doing so, they can ensure sustainable growth and job creation in the agricultural sector, thereby contributing to the overall economic stability of rural areas. In light of these findings, further research is recommended to explore the specific mechanisms through which climate change affects citrus production and to identify best practices for mitigating risks while enhancing productivity. This could involve examining the role of soil health, water management, and pest control in adapting to changing climatic conditions. Additionally, studies could investigate the socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural communities, particularly in terms of employment opportunities and income stability. Ultimately, the relationship between climate change and agricultural productivity is complex and multifaceted. However, by focusing on the potential benefits and implementing proactive measures, it is possible to navigate the challenges posed by climate change while fostering economic growth and employment in the agricultural sector.
Methods: The climatic variables studied in this research include temperature and rainfall data for Mazandaran Province from 2000 to 2017. These data were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization. The research focused on seven synoptic stations: Amol, Babolsar, Qarakhil, Nowshehr, Ramsar, Sari, and Siyabisheh. Among the various citrus products, orange and tangerine were selected due to their significant cultivated area and economic importance. The climatic variables analyzed include minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and monthly rainfall. These variables were downscaled for three distinct periods: the baseline period (2000 to 2017), as well as projected scenarios for 2020 and 2080, under three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: optimistic (RCP2.6), medium (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RCP8.5).
Results: The findings reveal that in orange production, changes in temperature and annual rainfall, compared to the average net income during the baseline period, will result in increased net income by 13.4%, 14.5%, and 25.2% under the three scenarios, respectively. For the years 2050 and 2080, the increases in net income are projected to be 14.3%, 27.8%, and 29.1%. In terms of tangerine production, the net income under the investigated scenarios is expected to rise by 5.2%, 6.7%, and 17.7%, with further increases of 6.2%, 15.0%, and 29.2% anticipated in 2050 and 2080, respectively. These results indicate a positive correlation between changing climatic conditions and the economic viability of citrus production in Mazandaran Province.
Conclusion: In conclusion, the results obtained from examining the effects of climate change in 2050 and 2080 demonstrate a positive impact of changing climate variables on the net income derived from both orange and tangerine production. The findings suggest that climate change may lead to an upward trend in net income from citrus production, which could, in turn, foster employment development in this sector. This upward trend indicates that, while climate change poses significant challenges to agriculture, it may also create opportunities for increased productivity and economic growth in specific areas such as citrus farming. The implications of this research are significant for policymakers and agricultural stakeholders. Understanding how climate change can enhance or hinder agricultural productivity allows for better planning and resource allocation. It highlights the need for adaptive strategies that can help farmers maximize their yields while mitigating the adverse effects of climate variability. Moreover, the positive outlook regarding citrus production under changing climatic conditions emphasizes the importance of investing in agricultural research and development. By focusing on climate-resilient practices and technologies, stakeholders can better prepare for future challenges while capitalizing on potential gains in productivity. In summary, this study underscores the necessity of integrating climate change considerations into agricultural policies and practices. The findings not only provide a glimpse into the future of citrus production in Mazandaran Province but also serve as a call to action for the agricultural community to embrace innovation and adaptability in the face of climate change. By doing so, they can ensure sustainable growth and job creation in the agricultural sector, thereby contributing to the overall economic stability of rural areas. In light of these findings, further research is recommended to explore the specific mechanisms through which climate change affects citrus production and to identify best practices for mitigating risks while enhancing productivity. This could involve examining the role of soil health, water management, and pest control in adapting to changing climatic conditions. Additionally, studies could investigate the socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural communities, particularly in terms of employment opportunities and income stability. Ultimately, the relationship between climate change and agricultural productivity is complex and multifaceted. However, by focusing on the potential benefits and implementing proactive measures, it is possible to navigate the challenges posed by climate change while fostering economic growth and employment in the agricultural sector.
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